Question

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

6 comments6

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction26%

Make a Prediction

community: 26.2%

median 26.2%mean 24.7%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

List of states with nuclear weapons

Military science

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Federation of American Scientists

Geopolitics

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

List of states with nuclear weapons

Military science

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Federation of American Scientists

Geopolitics

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Make a Prediction

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?