Question

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

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Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction26.2% (16% - 30%)

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50%

community: 26.2%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

List of states with nuclear weapons

Military science

Federation of American Scientists

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

List of states with nuclear weapons

Military science

Federation of American Scientists

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Opinion | Trump Can Pull Us Back From the Nuclear Brink

New York Times•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

10%

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Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Make a Prediction

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Comments

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will countries possess a total of >20,000 nuclear weapons on December 31, 2029?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 1000Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?