Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction6% (2% - 8.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Pentagon Warns China Has Tripled Its Nuclear Arsenal

Breitbart•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

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Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Comments

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?