M

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

You're now enjoying a rewritten, open-source Metaculus, with a range of improvements and new opportunities for collaboration. Go here to learn more!

Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

5
26
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction6%

Make a Prediction

community: 6%
median 6.0%mean 6.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks

Comments

? comments