Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction6%

Make a Prediction

community: 6%

median 6.0%mean 6.8%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Why Tech Giants Are Betting Big On Nuclear Power

Forbes•Oct 22, 2024

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Save Ourselves from Ourselves

CounterPunch•Oct 23, 2024

Ukraine war ending scenarios

Strategic Culture•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

22%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Why Tech Giants Are Betting Big On Nuclear Power

Forbes•Oct 22, 2024

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Save Ourselves from Ourselves

CounterPunch•Oct 23, 2024

Ukraine war ending scenarios

Strategic Culture•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

22%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26%