Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction6% (2% - 8.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

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Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

26.2%

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