Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

M

Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

5
25
Total Forecasters43
Community Prediction6% (2% - 8.5%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 6%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks

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