Question

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

25 comments25

Total Forecasters44

Community Prediction

(2% - 10%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

The Return Of Dr Strangelove - Will Geopolitics Bring Back Game Theory?

Forbes•Mar 29, 2025

How Is Europe Preparing for Life Without US in NATO

Newsweek•Mar 26, 2025

France Can't Deploy New Air-Launched Nuclear-Tipped Missiles Before 2035

Lew Rockwell•Mar 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

21.9%

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

25%

MetaculusM

Will any country have a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Make a Prediction

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

Comments

Will any state test a nuclear weapon with yield above 30 MT by 2030?

Will the total yield of nuclear weapons offensively detonated by 2050 exceed 50Mt, if any offensive detonation occurs?

Will the total yield across all countries' nuclear stockpiles at the end of 2029 exceed 10,000Mt?

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