Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

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Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

median 60.0%mean 58.2%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

BOOM: Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine, Pushing the World Closer to Armageddon

PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

The Kremlin has revised its nuclear policy. Does that make the use of atomic weapons more likely?

Associated Press•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%