Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

no comments0

Total Forecasters27

Community Prediction60%

Make a Prediction

community: 60%

median 60.0%mean 57.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

The Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty: Save Ourselves from Ourselves

CounterPunch•Oct 23, 2024

SCOTT RITTER: Iran’s Bomb Is Real — And It’s Here

Strategic Culture•Oct 23, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%