Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

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Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction60% (49% - 70%)

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50%

community: 60%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

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Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Suspect in Gilgo Beach serial killings is charged in the death of a seventh woman

•Dec 18, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Suspect in Gilgo Beach serial killings is charged in the death of a seventh woman

•Dec 18, 2024

90 Seconds to Midnight: Surviving the Atomic Age | Opinion

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Make a Prediction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

Comments

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?