Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 billion fatalities within 10 years?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters28

Community Prediction57.9% (39.3% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 57.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Literature

Science

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%