Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction57%

Make a Prediction

community: 56.8%

median 56.8%mean 52.1%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Agriculture

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Nutrition

Food science

Environmental science

Geopolitics

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Agriculture

Nuclear winter

Nuclear Science and Techniques

Nutrition

Food science

Environmental science

Geopolitics

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Make a Prediction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Comments

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?