Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters39

Community Prediction60% (41% - 70%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 60%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Map reveals safest states during a nuclear attack on US soil

Daily Mail•Dec 8, 2024

What Would World War III Look Like?

Newsweek•Dec 10, 2024

In Nuclear Apocalypse, How Safe Is Your State?

Red State•Dec 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Make a Prediction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Comments

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?