Question

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction25% (12% - 30%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 25%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Environmental science

Global temperature record

Climate change denial

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If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

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