Question

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction31.9% (25% - 35%)

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50%

community: 31.9%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Nuclear winter

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25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

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