Question

If nuclear conflict occurs by 2030, will it start in the period June-September?

11 comments11

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction31.9% (25% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 31.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Sep 30, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Environmental science

Nuclear winter

Is humanity doomed? Doomsday Clock will be updated TOMORROW to determine our fate - so, will it tick closer to midnight?

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

The Doomsday Clock reset comes Tuesday: How worried should we be?

USA Today•Jan 28, 2025

The Doomsday Clock Just Moved Closer to Midnight

Time•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If >100 offensive nuclear detonations occur in a single conflict by 2030, will this cause a global temperature drop of ≥3°C?

25%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments