Question

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction84% (80% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 84%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2049

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2050

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Food and Agriculture Organization

Nuclear winter

Nuclear weapon

Nuclear explosion

Environmental science

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85%

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

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