Question

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction43% (29% - 50%)

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50%

community: 43%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of Russia

United States

New START

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Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

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Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

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New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

19%

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of Russia

United States

New START

US updates a science and technology pact with China to reflect growing rivalry and security threats

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

US warns Russia may be ready to use new lethal missile against Ukraine again in ‘coming days’

New York Post•Dec 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

19%

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Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Comments

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?