Question

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters38

Community Prediction45% (33% - 50%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 45%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Feb 4, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 5, 2026

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of Russia

United States

New START

Trump wants denuclearization talks with Russia and China, hopes for defense spending cuts

Associated Press•Feb 14, 2025

Donald Trump Makes Major Nuclear Weapons Announcement

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Trump proposes nuclear deal with Russia and China to halve defense budgets

Guardian•Feb 14, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

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4.8%

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20%

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