Question

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters37

Community Prediction43%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 43%

median 43.0%mean 40.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of Russia

United States

New START

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of Russia

United States

New START

North Korea ratifies major defense treaty with Russia

Associated Press•Nov 12, 2024

North Korea and Russia Ratify Major Defense Treaty

Time•Nov 12, 2024

North Korea, Russia Strengthen Military Ties

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%