Question

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction39.9% (25% - 40%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 39.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Feb 1, 2030

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

United States

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How many HEMP attacks will occur by 2030, if at least one does?

3.87

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

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