Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

-1

1 comment1

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction99% (95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

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Red State•Jan 21, 2025

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Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Is humanity doomed? Doomsday Clock will be updated TOMORROW to determine our fate - so, will it tick closer to midnight?

Daily Mail•Jan 27, 2025

The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons Provides a Way to Avert Nuclear Catastrophe

OpEdNews•Jan 28, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%