Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

-1

1 comment1

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction99%

Make a Prediction

community: 99%

median 99.0%mean 87.6%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

“Escalation Dominance” . . . and the Prospect of More Than 1,000 Holocausts

CounterPunch•Oct 1, 2024

The Dangerous Illusion of ‘Escalation Dominance’

Truth Dig•Oct 1, 2024

‘Escalation Dominance’ and the Prospect of More Than 1,000 Holocausts

AntiWar•Oct 2, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

MetaculusM

🚀Metaculus Open-Source Rewrite is Live!

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Make a Prediction

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Comments

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?