Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

-1

1 comment1

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction99% (95% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Angling Toward Armageddon

Consortium News•Jan 21, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Is Nuclear Proliferation Always a Bad Thing?

Red State•Jan 21, 2025

Angling Toward Armageddon

Consortium News•Jan 21, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%