Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

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Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction99% (95% - 99%)

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50%

community: 99%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

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Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

Make a Prediction

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Comments

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?