Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction4% (1% - 12.9%)

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50%

community: 4%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

Make a Prediction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

Comments

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?