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Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

6
4
Total Forecasters56
Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

community: 4%
median 4.0%mean 12.9%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Nuclear warfare
Human extinction

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