Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters55

Community Prediction4% (1% - 12.9%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

How close is humanity to self-destruction? Doomsday Clock will reveal how bad things are.

USA Today•Jan 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

How close is humanity to self-destruction? Doomsday Clock will reveal how bad things are.

USA Today•Jan 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%