Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction4% (1% - 15%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

50% GDP Collapse Ahead? Actuaries Sound The Alarm—Who’s Listening?

Forbes•Mar 1, 2025

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%