Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters56

Community Prediction4%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 4%

median 4.0%mean 12.9%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Human extinction

Humanity Strays Dangerously Close to the Nuclear Trigger

Lew Rockwell•Oct 28, 2024

Why We All Need a U.N. Study of the Effects of Nuclear War

Scientific American•Oct 28, 2024

Is Putin preparing for nuclear war?

•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

57%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%