Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters29

Community Prediction37% (27% - 45%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 37%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Humanity

Human extinction

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Humanity

Human extinction

Takeaways from the AP’s reporting on nuclear bunkers

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they aren’t going to provide protection

Associated Press•Dec 17, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite expert warnings they won’t protect you

Independent•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

72%