Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction39.5% (27% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 39.5%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Humanity

Human extinction

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear warfare

Humanity

Human extinction

Nuclear weapons: dangerous threat or just a menace?

American Thinker•Mar 4, 2025

North Korea could have more nukes than the UK by 2035 and may already have the ability to detonate a nuclear weapon over a US city, analysts warn

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

What the world could look like in 2035 according to more than 350 experts

Daily Mail•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity be extinct within 50 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

80%