M

Question

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

3
1
Total Forecasters30
Community Prediction37%

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 37%
median 37.0%mean 39.3%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Nuclear warfare
Humanity
Human extinction

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