Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction72% (68% - 90%)

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50%

community: 72%

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran Could Have a Nuclear Weapon in 'Days': Former Israeli Ambassador to US

Newsweek•Dec 24, 2024

Private nuclear bunker sales are on the rise—but experts issue stark warning

New York Post•Dec 25, 2024

Is it really possible to destroy Russia?

Strategic Culture•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran Could Have a Nuclear Weapon in 'Days': Former Israeli Ambassador to US

Newsweek•Dec 24, 2024

Private nuclear bunker sales are on the rise—but experts issue stark warning

New York Post•Dec 25, 2024

Is it really possible to destroy Russia?

Strategic Culture•Dec 27, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%