Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction80% (68.8% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 80%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

What Happens If Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strikes Earth — And Why We Can’t ‘Nuke’ It

Forbes•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Inside secret US lab where US will begin testing nukes again amid fears of WWIII

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

What Happens If Asteroid 2024 YR4 Strikes Earth — And Why We Can’t ‘Nuke’ It

Forbes•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

39.5%