Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters25

Community Prediction

72%

(68.8% - 86%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 72%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Oct 28, 2021

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2100

Spot Scoring Time:

Oct 30, 2021

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iranian Regime’s Nuclear Crisis and Diplomatic Tensions: Negotiation or Confrontation?

American Thinker•Mar 23, 2025

A Biologist Refutes Elon Musk’s ‘Adult Diaper’ Theory On Population Decline

Forbes•Mar 22, 2025

Ballistic missile interceptors and pamphlets dropping in France - how Europe is preparing for nuclear war

Independent•Mar 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

63%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%