Question

Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

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Total Forecasters23

Community Prediction72% (68% - 90%)

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50%

community: 72%

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MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

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If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

How To Prepare for Nuclear War

Lew Rockwell•Dec 13, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Nuclear bunker sales increase, despite warnings they won't provide protection

NPR Online News•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

99%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

60%

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

37%

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Will the first nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations cause more than 100 million fatalities within 1 month of the final detonation?

Make a Prediction

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

Comments

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >100 detonations, will that cause >1 million fatalities within 1 month?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will that cause more than 4 billion fatalities within 10 years?

If there's a nuclear conflict involving >1,000 detonations, will humanity's population be less than 400 million 50 years later?