Question

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction72%

Make a Prediction

community: 72%

median 72.0%mean 66.8%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.01

Comments

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Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

New NATO Member Joins First Nuclear Weapons Drill

Newsweek•Oct 7, 2024

Has Iran Just Tested a Nuclear Bomb?

Lew Rockwell•Oct 10, 2024

US still believes Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon: officials

New York Post•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.01