Question

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

3 comments3

Total Forecasters53

Community Prediction75%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 75%

median 75.0%mean 67.5%

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02

Comments

? comments

Authors:

MetaculusOutlooks havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

China Will Have Four Nuclear Powered Aircraft Carriers by 2035

•Nov 11, 2024

Report: China Builds ‘Prototype’ Nuclear Reactor for Aircraft Carrier

Breitbart•Nov 13, 2024

Ukraine Could Build its Own Nuclear Bombs in Months: Report

Breitbart•Nov 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

50%

How many nuclear weapon states will there be in 2030?

How many nuclear weapons will be detonated offensively by 2050?

1.02