Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

We're considering changes to the Quarterly Cup and want to hear from you, take our short survey to share your thoughts and help shape future iterations of the Cup.

M

Question

Will there be 10 or more nuclear-armed states at any time before 2035?

4
4
Total Forecasters51
Community Prediction75% (65.9% - 77%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 75%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
MetaculusOutlookshavlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Soviet Union
China
United Kingdom
India
Japan
Pakistan
Iran
France
Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
North Korea and weapons of mass destruction

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