Question

Will Metaculus exist in 2030?

54 comments54

Total Forecasters527

Community Prediction95% (90% - 98.7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 95%

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Apr 29, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Metaculus

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Nate Silver Asks: ‘Are We Entering a Conservative Golden Age?'

PJ Media•Jan 23, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

2050-02-24

Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?

7.5%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

jzima

Opened:

Apr 29, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Metaculus

Predictions About The Future 100 Years From Now

Buzzfeed•Jan 22, 2025

Nate Silver Asks: ‘Are We Entering a Conservative Golden Age?'

PJ Media•Jan 23, 2025

Is the Collapse Coming Soon?

CounterPunch•Jan 24, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the last Metaculus question resolution occur?

2050-02-24

Will Metaculus, or a licensed derivative, be operated as a public site by a publicly traded company by 2030?

7.5%

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

84%