Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

16
22
Total Forecasters70
Community Prediction1.5% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1.5%
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
AGI Outcomes
Artificial Intelligence
Natural Sciences
Social Sciences
Robotics
S&P 500 Index
Matthew Barnett
Robin Hanson
Automation

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