Question

Will Robin Hanson win his bet against Matthew Barnett on whether ems will come before de novo AGI?

22 comments22

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction1.5% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1.5%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Nov 4, 2021

Closes:

Oct 3, 2061

Scheduled resolution:

Oct 3, 2121

AGI Outcomes

Artificial Intelligence

OpenAI’s Sam Altman: ‘We Know How To Build AGI’, Will Hit Workforce In 2025

Daily Wire•Jan 26, 2025

The World's Worst Financial Catastrophe Could Happen Soon | Opinion

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

OpenAI safety researcher issues chilling warning about 'very risky gamble with huge downside' as he suddenly quits

Daily Mail•Jan 29, 2025

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