Question

If the 2024 US Presidential Election is Trump vs. Biden, will Trump win?

Resolved :Ambiguous86%

174 comments174

Total Forecasters847

Community Prediction86% (78% - 95%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 86%

Did this actually happen?Ambiguous

Authors:

Jgalt

Opened:

Nov 17, 2021

Closes:

Nov 8, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 12, 2025

Elections

Politics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

US Electoral College

Joe Biden

Donald Trump

Time magazine to name Trump 2024 Person of the Year: report

FOX News•Feb 18, 2025

Trump predicts red wave in 2026: ‘Increase our margins by a lot’

New York Post•Feb 21, 2025

Do Americans approve of President Trump? Here's what polls say a month into office

USA Today•Feb 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will Donald Trump have a positive approval rating on March 23, 2025?

15%

Will Trump win the 2024 presidential election and retain supreme executive power past 2028?

Will Donald Trump have a positive net favorability rate on December 20, 2025, according to 538?

19%

Comments

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