Question

Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

12 comments12

Total Forecasters46

Community Prediction11% (5% - 19%)

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community: 11%

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Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Geopolitics

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Lethal autonomous weapon

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots

Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons

United States

Russia

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Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

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Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says human operators need to have 'meaningful control' of AI drones in warfare

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Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

crule

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Regulation of AI

Geopolitics

Politics

Artificial Intelligence

Technology

Lethal autonomous weapon

Campaign to Stop Killer Robots

Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons

United States

Russia

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Are AI defense firms about to eat the Pentagon?

Defense One•Dec 16, 2024

Ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt says human operators need to have 'meaningful control' of AI drones in warfare

Business Insider•Dec 16, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

68%

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Will the United States sign a Treaty on the Prohibition of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems before 2031?

Make a Prediction

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Comments

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?

Will "slaughterbots" kill at least 50 people outside a military conflict by 2035?

Will any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development be signed by the US and China before the following years?

Will the US and China be party to any AI regulation treaty that controls or monitors AI development in the following years?