Question

Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No

22 comments22

Total Forecasters85

Community Prediction3%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

50.4

Community Peer Score

16.9

median 3.0%mean 5.5%

Authors:

EvanHarper

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Future Perfect 2022 Series

Geopolitics

Tigray People's Liberation Front

Addis Ababa–Djibouti Railway

Debretsion Gebremichael

Mekelle

Amhara Region

Afar Region

Oromo Liberation Front

Addis Ababa

Abiy Ahmed

Ethiopia

Will Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed experience a significant leadership disruption before 2025?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will there be at least 200 military conflict deaths between Ethiopia, Somalia, and Somaliland in 2024?

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