Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Tigrayan-aligned forces seize the National Palace in Addis Ababa by military assault before June 1, 2022?

Resolved :No3%
14
22
Total Forecasters85
Community Prediction3% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 3%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
50.4
Community Peer Score
16.9
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
EvanHarper
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Future Perfect 2022 Series
Geopolitics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Tigray People's Liberation Front
Addis Ababa–Djibouti Railway
Debretsion Gebremichael
Mekelle
Amhara Region
Afar Region
Oromo Liberation Front
Addis Ababa
Abiy Ahmed

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