📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will Paxlovid be given an EUA from the FDA?

Resolved :Dec 22, 20212022-01-09
12
17
Total Forecasters58
Community Prediction2022-01-09 (2021-12-30 - 2022-01-24)

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2022-03-01
...
...
...
...
2021-12-30 14:18
2022-01-09 00:08
2022-01-24 16:38
6.0%

What was the final result?Dec 22, 2021

Community Baseline Score
31.1
Community Peer Score
9.3
Authors:
Matthew_Barnett
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
Economy & Business
2021 Leaderboard
Food and Drug Administration
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Pfizer
Emergency Use Authorization

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