📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

Will Cryptocurrency Miners be considered “brokers” by the IRS by 2025?

Resolved :No8%
3
2
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction8% (1.5% - 22.6%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
52.9
Community Peer Score
8.6
Authors:
casens
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
Cryptocurrencies
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Janet Yellen
Cryptography
Proof of work
United States
Internal Revenue Service

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