Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

By 2024, will Russia clearly and publicly affirm that decisions to authorize nuclear weapons employment must only be made by humans?

Resolved :No1%
3
1
Total Forecasters79
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 1%)

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community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
81.3
Community Peer Score
19.9
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Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Minister of Foreign Affairs (Russia)
President of Russia
Russian Armed Forces
Prime Minister of Russia
General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation
Ministry of Defence (Russia)
Russia

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