Question

Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?

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havlickova.blanka

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If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Food and Agriculture Organization

Farming has always been gambling with dirt – but the odds are getting longer | Gabrielle Chan

Guardian•Dec 16, 2024

Grocery Prices Set to Rise as Soil Becomes 'Unproductive'

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

The Most Significant U.S. Weather Events Of 2024

Forbes•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

34.7%

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

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Will there be a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2024?

Make a Prediction

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

Comments

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?