Question

Will any state leave NATO before 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

19 comments19

Total Forecasters208

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 0.4%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.7

Community Peer Score

8.2

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Nuclear Risk Tournament

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Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

North Macedonia

Georgia (U.S. state)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Ukraine

NATO

Trump considering major NATO policy shift

NBC•Mar 7, 2025

Trump Weighs Overhaul of NATO Commitments Based on Defense Spending: Report

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Trump considering changing NATO policy to favor countries spending more on defense: report

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 18, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

North Macedonia

Georgia (U.S. state)

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Ukraine

NATO

Trump considering major NATO policy shift

NBC•Mar 7, 2025

Trump Weighs Overhaul of NATO Commitments Based on Defense Spending: Report

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Trump considering changing NATO policy to favor countries spending more on defense: report

Independent•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

90%

MetaculusM

Will any state leave NATO before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Comments

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

How many members will NATO have on December 31, 2025?

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

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