Question

By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?

Resolved :No

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Total Forecasters87

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community: 0.2%

Did this actually happen?No

median 0.2%mean 4.4%

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havlickova.blanka

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President of the US

Treaty on Open Skies

United States Secretary of Defense

United States

United States Secretary of State

NATO

Russia

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

42%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

President of the US

Treaty on Open Skies

United States Secretary of Defense

United States

United States Secretary of State

NATO

Russia

Ukraine Should Rush Back to Istanbul

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Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

42%

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By 2024, will the US announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?

Make a Prediction

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Comments

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?