Question

By 2024, will Russia announce it intends to rejoin the Open Skies Treaty?

Resolved :No

2 comments2

Total Forecasters91

Community Prediction0.5%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

88.8

Community Peer Score

8.7

median 0.5%mean 4.4%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Treaty on Open Skies

Russian Armed Forces

Minister of Foreign Affairs (Russia)

President of Russia

Ukraine–NATO relations

United States

Prime Minister of Russia

Ministry of Defence (Russia)

Russia

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will there be a war between Russia and one or more NATO countries, but not the US, by 2035?

10%

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