Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

There's still time to compete for $3,500 in commenting prizes: Learn how you can help GiveWell help others.

M

Question

Will a donor other than Carnegie or MacArthur make >$10m of nuclear risk related grants in 2022?

Resolved :No41%
3
7
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction41% (32% - 43%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 41%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
50.9
Community Peer Score
9.4
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Nuclear Risk Tournament
Szilard Fortified Essay Contest
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Nuclear Threat Initiative
MacArthur Foundation
Carnegie Corporation of New York

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