Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be of a nonstrategic nuclear weapon, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled

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Total Forecasters77

Community Prediction77%

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community: 77%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 77.0%mean 73.1%

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havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

8.35e-1

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Strategic nuclear weapon

Physics

Military science

Security

Tactical nuclear weapon

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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What proportion of offensive nuclear detonations by 2030 will be of nonstrategic nuclear weapons, if there's at least one offensive detonation by then?

8.35e-1

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28