Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled65%

6 comments6

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction65% (55% - 71%)

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50%

community: 65%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

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havlickova.blanka

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Does Putin's New 'Oreshnik' Missile Transform Rules of Nuclear Warfare?

Newsweek•Dec 13, 2024

Putin Reveals When Russia May Use Nuclear Weapons Under New Doctrine

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

US Shares Update on China's Nuclear Arsenal

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

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Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Make a Prediction

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

Comments

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?