Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be against a battlefield target, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled

6 comments6

Total Forecasters74

Community Prediction65%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 65.0%mean 62.9%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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•Oct 30, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%