Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled

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Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction20%

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community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 20.0%mean 19.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Urban area

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Urban area

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

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CounterPunch•Oct 23, 2024

SCOTT RITTER: Iran’s Bomb Is Real — And It’s Here

Strategic Culture•Oct 23, 2024

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

22%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

2.69e-2