Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled20%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction20% (10% - 25%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Nov 25, 2021

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

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If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2036-04-02

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

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