Question

Will the first offensive nuclear detonation by 2024 be on a city, if there's an offensive detonation by then?

Resolved :Annulled

2 comments2

Total Forecasters78

Community Prediction20%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 20%

Did this actually happen?Annulled

median 20.0%mean 19.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

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Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Urban area

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Urban area

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia says Ukraine attacked it using U.S. long-range missiles, signals it's ready for nuclear response

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

BOOM: Russia Updates Its Nuclear Doctrine, Pushing the World Closer to Armageddon

PJ Media•Nov 19, 2024

The Kremlin has revised its nuclear policy. Does that make the use of atomic weapons more likely?

Associated Press•Nov 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

If an offensive state nuclear detonation occurs by 2050, will the first detonation be inadvertent?

21.9%

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0.0269