Question

By 2024, will a party to the NPT withdraw from the treaty?

Resolved :No

8 comments8

Total Forecasters84

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

77.4

Community Peer Score

16.6

median 1.0%mean 3.5%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs

North Korea

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Iran

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

United Nations Office for Disarmament Affairs

North Korea

Will Israel Attack Iran’s Nuclear Program? Here’s What To Know As Ex-PM Calls For Strikes

Forbes•Oct 9, 2024

Israel vows to hit back at Iran. Will it bomb Tehran's nuclear sites? Can it?

USA Today•Oct 9, 2024

US still believes Iran has not decided to build a nuclear weapon: officials

New York Post•Oct 11, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will any country that had nuclear weapons on July 1, 2017 give them up before 2035?

Will a new nuclear-armed state emerge before 2030?

51%

Will a signatory to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons develop a nuclear weapon anyway?

45%