Question

Will the US officially state the intention to re-ratify the INF Treaty by 2024?

Resolved :No

5 comments5

Total Forecasters68

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

72.2

Community Peer Score

9.4

median 1.0%mean 3.2%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Nuclear Risk Tournament

Szilard Fortified Essay Contest

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

United States

Donald Trump

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

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