Question

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

5 comments5

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction59.7% (50% - 63%)

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50%

community: 59.7%

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Authors:

casens

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Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

New study finds first US obesity decline in 10 years. Is Ozempic a leading factor?

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Americans Are Less Obese Than Before

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Novo Nordisk’s next-generation weight-loss drug CagriSema matches Lilly’s Zepbound in major trial, but doesn’t surpass it

CNN•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80.8%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

casens

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

Food and Drug Administration

New study finds first US obesity decline in 10 years. Is Ozempic a leading factor?

USA Today•Dec 17, 2024

Americans Are Less Obese Than Before

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Novo Nordisk’s next-generation weight-loss drug CagriSema matches Lilly’s Zepbound in major trial, but doesn’t surpass it

CNN•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

80.8%

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

43%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

Will a small molecule GLP-1-based drug be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2029?

Make a Prediction

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Comments

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will oral semaglutide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?

Will the FDA or EMA withdraw approval of Semaglutide for the treatment of obesity by 2027?

Will the combination of semaglutide and cagrilintide be approved for the treatment of obesity by the FDA or EMA by 2027?