Question

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

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Total Forecasters350

Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

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juancambeiro

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Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States Intelligence Community

Deadly virus samples went missing from lab in ‘major biosecurity breach,’ say authorities

FOX News•Dec 11, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Lessons Learned and a Path Forward: COVID Select Subcommittee Final Report - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

10%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.35

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Health & Pandemics

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States Intelligence Community

Deadly virus samples went missing from lab in ‘major biosecurity breach,’ say authorities

FOX News•Dec 11, 2024

Predictive Analysis: Pandemic 2.0 Will Drop Early in Trump Term

PJ Media•Dec 13, 2024

Lessons Learned and a Path Forward: COVID Select Subcommittee Final Report - Global Research

Global Research•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

10%

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

4.35

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By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Make a Prediction

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

Comments

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?

Before January 1, 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated in a laboratory?

Before 2025, will at least two public health agencies claim that China deliberately misreported COVID-19 infections?

How many high-risk laboratory biosecurity incidents will occur between 2022 and 2026 (inclusive)?