📖 The ACX 2025 Prediction Contest Is Open!

The Astral Codex Ten Prediction Contest is back with an expanded $10,000 prize pool! Test your forecasting skills across geopolitics, technology, economics, and more with questions curated by Scott Alexander. Make your predictions by January 31 to compete.

🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

By 2025, will a majority of US Intelligence Community organizations support a lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 over a natural origin hypothesis?

Resolved :No1%
40
109
Total Forecasters352
Community Prediction1% (0.1% - 3%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
41.1
Community Peer Score
18.8
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Health & Pandemics
2021-2025 Leaderboard
United States Intelligence Community
Public health
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Epidemiology

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