Question

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

1 comment1

Total Forecasters24

Community Prediction3.9%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3.9%

median 3.9%mean 13.2%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-14

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Arms Control Association

Nuclear weapons testing

Peaceful nuclear explosion

Russia

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Trumpian Isolationism in the Nuclear Age

OpEdNews•Nov 19, 2024

Russia-U.S. tensions hit global markets as Putin lowers the threshold for a nuclear strike

CNBC•Nov 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Conditional on New START being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.6%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

If there's a US-Russia war by 2050, when will it start?

2032-06-14