Question

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction34.7% (20% - 41%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34.7%

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Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Syria faces crisis and Gaza heads toward famine, World Food Program official says

Associated Press•Dec 13, 2024

Climate Change Trial at The Hague

CounterPunch•Dec 13, 2024

We Are One-Quarter Through War's Last Century

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

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If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

Make a Prediction

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

Comments

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?