Question

If there's a 10% global agricultural shortfall by 2030, will this cause >400 million fatalities?

2 comments2

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction34.7%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 34.7%

median 34.7%mean 33.3%

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

havlickova.blanka

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Nuclear Risk Horizons Project

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

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If the US is attacked by >100 nuclear detonations by 2045, will US cereal crop yields decline by ≥20%?

85%

If one or more HEMP attacks occur by 2030, will that lead to >10 million fatalities?

39.9%

If there are >100 nuclear detonations by 2050, will average global cereal yields be at least 5% lower in the following 5 years than in the previous 5 years?

84%