Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

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Forecast and Share Your Reasoning With GiveWell by January 1st — $3,500 in prizes

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M

Question

What fraction of nuclear weapon detonations by the US by 2050 will be on cities with >1500 people per km^2?

0
Total Forecasters8
Community Prediction0.0269 (0.00752 - 0.0929)

Make a Prediction

weight:
My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
...
...
...
0.007516
0.02694
0.09285
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
havlickova.blanka
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Nuclear Risk Horizons Project
Geopolitics
Nuclear Technology & Risks
Nuclear winter
Environmental science
United States
Urban area
Nuclear weapons testing
Peaceful nuclear explosion

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